Time for those winter weather predictions to begin! While there's no crystal ball, we can take a look at historical averages and weigh what El Nino usually means for the South Plains to come up with a decent guess.

Check out the map below from the NOAA which, while a bit difficult to really zone in on Lubbock proper, shows the best guess for first snowfall: the last two weeks of November!

Writes the NOAA:

This map isn’t the average date of the first observed snowfall. Technically, it’s the date by which there’s a 50% chance at least 0.1” of snow will have accumulated. It’s based on historical patterns from 1981-2010, with some “smoothing” to account for statistical noise in the data.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Take a look here at what Accuweather is predicting for, you guessed it, the third week of November. Rain at times and a low of 26 degrees -- plenty cold enough for snow!