Chad’s Morning Brief: Election Day is Here
Election Day 2014. Here is your Morning Brief for 11.04.14.
Will Republicans Take the Senate?
That is the big question tonight. Will the GOP take over the Senate and if they do, how many seats will they win? FOX News previews what could happen tonight.
Voters will decide on 36 Senate and 435 House races, as well as another three-dozen gubernatorial races. But the overwhelming focus remains on a handful of tight Senate contests that will determine whether Republicans take total control of Capitol Hill.
To achieve that, Republicans need to retain control of the House (which is considered very likely) and net six seats in the upper chamber. Three races are more or less locked down for the GOP, barring a stunning upset: Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.
But Republicans remain locked in competitive races in a number of other states, including those that President Obama lost in 2012 and where he continues to have low approval ratings. This includes Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.
Arkansas is increasingly seen as a likely flip to Republican hands, with GOP Rep. Tom Cotton expected by many analysts to defeat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor.
“I think all people on both sides agree that one is slipping away,” Democratic strategist and Fox News contributor Joe Trippi predicted. “But never say never.”
Relying on the anti-Obama voter sentiment, Republicans also are trying to upset Democratic incumbents in Colorado and New Hampshire and win Iowa’s open Democratic seat while trying to hold onto their own seats in Georgia, Kansas and Kentucky.
“In every midterm, the White House party, in this case the Democrats, says the president is not on the ballot, but he is,” Republican strategist and Fox News contributor Karl Rove said Monday.
If there’s a Republican wave, a telling sign of it would be in North Carolina, where Republican challenger Thom Tillis has trailed Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan since June, or in New Hampshire, where GOP challenger Scott Brown has closed the lead on Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. If Republicans fare well there, it spells trouble for Democrats elsewhere.
But there’s a possibility America won’t even know the outcome on election night.
Late-tallied votes from rural Alaska and a likely runoff in Louisiana between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Republican challenger Rep. Bill Cassidy – and a possible runoff in the Georgia race, where a nominee must get 50 percent of the votes to win -- could keep control of the Senate undecided for days, or even until next year.
I believe that the Republicans will take the U.S. Senate, but I'm not sure if it will be a "wave" election. Polls may show this huge wave of support, but we have seen how accurate polls have been in the past. Remember when many people thought that the anti-Obama vote in 2012 was going to be enough to elect Mitt Romney? Tonight will be a big night for Republicans but I don't expect it to be as amazing as some want it to be.
Little to no drama here in Texas. The Texas Tribune is sticking by their poll that has Greg Abbott over Wendy Davis by 16 points. All other Republican candidates for statewide office should sail to victory tonight. There will be a few things to look for though in the Texas elections.
Turnout will be key in Texas. Abbott and other candidates have attempted to fire up Republicans in an attempt to win big and send a message to Battleground Texas. Will Wendy Davis finish with more than 42% of the vote? I think it comes down to turnout, but I predict that she will fall below 42%. Falling below 42% would be an embarrassment and deal a major blow to Battleground Texas. I will also be interested to see if Leticia Van de Putte receives a higher percentage of the vote than Davis. How will Hispanics in Texas vote? That will be something else to watch for.
Don't forget to tune in to KFYO's Election Night coverage from 7-11pm tonight.
Other Must Read Links: