Severe Weather Possible on Tuesday for Lubbock and South Plains
Severe weather season has been a little bit slow-going for Lubbock and the South Plains, but that may change later this week.
The Storm Prediction Center's 3-Day Outlook put Lubbock, and the eastern South Plains, in the middle of the forecast area for severe weather on Tuesday (April 27). The Storm Prediction Center's forecast (which can be read below) notes that a dryline is supposed to form across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, which could then spark Tuesday's severe weather.
Specifically, for Lubbock and the eastern South Plains, the main hazards on Tuesday could include winds above 60 mph, hail between 1"-2" inches, and possible tornadoes.
If any severe weather does break out on Tuesday, KAMC's Ron Roberts and Rob Snyder, will have the latest updates for you on News/Talk 95.1 & 790, KFYO; Awesome 98 (98.1 FM) and Lonestar 99-5.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night from portions of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper trough is forecast to be in place over the western CONUS early Tuesday morning. Strong mid/upper level flow will extend throughout the basal portion of this trough, beginning the period arced from off the central CA coast across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. This upper trough is expected to make modest eastward progress throughout the day while an embedded shortwave trough ejects over northern/central NM into eastern CO/western KS. This evolution will help spread the strong mid-level flow over much of the southern and central Plains. The surface pattern early Tuesday will likely feature a low near the central NE/KS border, with a dryline extending south-southwestward across central KS and northwest OK, and into the TX Panhandle. This dryline will likely remain in place, sharpening throughout the day as moderate low-level moisture advection continues to its east/southeast. Low-level convergence into this boundary combined with increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is forecast to result in convective initiation amid a diurnally destabilizing air mass. Some uncertainty exists regarding storm coverage, largely as a result of unknown cap strength and quality of the moisture return. Even so, environmental conditions support a predominantly supercell mode with any storms that do develop. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Central High Plains surface cyclogenesis will likely cause a westward retreat of the dryline during the evening. At the same time, a strengthening low-level jet will increase warm-air advection across the boundary. These factors are expected to result in additional storm development from the Permian Basin into south-central KS. Primary threat with these evening and overnight storms is large hail.