Chad’s Morning Brief: Will Texas Really Be A Swing State Soon? Karl Rove Predicts Romney Win, & More
Here is your Morning Brief for the morning of November 1, 2012. Give us your feedback below and tune in to The Chad Hasty Show for these and many more topics from 8:30 to 11 am.
1. Swing State Status? (link)
Texas Monthly has a piece out pondering if Texas really could go into swing state mode by 2016. In a nutshell, the answer is no but they are hoping.
Texas’s 38 electoral votes (as many as Iowa, New Hampshire, Virgina, and Colorado combined, Hinojosa and Longoria point out) will be in play at some point, the question is when. But, to achieve this, Hispanic turnout at the polls is key, and Silver identified two issues that will impact the timing:
The larger question is not if Texas will become more competitive, but when, both Mr. Henson and Mr. Miller said. And that largely depends on whether Democrats can improve turnout among Hispanics. They have a few things working against them.
First, the Texas Democratic Party has been out of power for a long time, with few elections to truly contest. “The party in the state has really atrophied,” said [James R. Henson, the director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.]
Second, Hispanic culture in Texas has so far not placed a high value on participating in the electoral process, said [Robert D. Miller, the chairman of the Public Law Group at Locke Lord L.L.P.]
The writer does point out that both Democrats and Republicans are wooing the Hispanic voters, but still goes with the idea that Hispanics will vote with the Democrats eventually. Why? No reason is really given and the reason for that is because it's a bunch of BS. I still believe that many of the values Hispanic families have are more closely aligned with the GOP. The problem for Republicans is that many in the Republican party seem scared to challenge Democrats when liberals tell the Hispanic community that the Republicans don't care about them. Republicans have to challenge that mindset.
Now, will Texas become a swing state by 2016? No. However I still predict Texas will go purple no earlier than 2020. Just wait for the political battles for the White House then.
2. Rove Predicts Romney Will Win (link)
When it comes to politics and breaking down numbers, there aren't many better than Karl Rove. In an op-ed to the Wall Street Journal, Rove is now predicting that Mitt Romney will win the Presidential election. Rove predicts that Romney will get at least 279 electoral votes and about 51% of the vote all together.
He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.
The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.
For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting.
Like I said, there aren't many better than Rove and I am hoping he is right. Everything seems to be coming together perfectly for Romney, but I my uneasy feeling won't go away until the race is called on election night.
3. Dead Heat (link)
According to FOX News, the Presidential election is tied just 5 days away from election day.
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters.
Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9).
Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall.
Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October.
There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent.
Obama is under-performing compared to 2008 which is great news, but nothing Republicans should be declaring victory over.
With all these polls out there, half will be dead on next week and the other half will be very wrong.
4. Court OKs Use of Hidden Cameras (link)
Should police be able to set-up hidden cameras on your property without getting a warrant? You may not like it, but as of right now the answer is yes.
Police are allowed in some circumstances to install hidden surveillance cameras on private property without obtaining a search warrant, a federal judge said yesterday.
CNET has learned that U.S. District Judge William Griesbachruled that it was reasonable for Drug Enforcement Administration agents to enter rural property without permission -- and without a warrant -- to install multiple "covert digital surveillance cameras" in hopes of uncovering evidence that 30 to 40 marijuana plants were being grown.
This is the latest case to highlight how advances in technology are causing the legal system to rethink how Americans' privacy rights are protected by law. In January, the Supreme Court rejected warrantless GPS tracking after previously rejecting warrantless thermal imaging, but it has not yet ruled on warrantless cell phone tracking or warrantless use of surveillance cameras placed on private property without permission.
Yesterday Griesbach adopted a recommendation by U.S. Magistrate Judge William Callahan dated October 9. That recommendation said that the DEA's warrantless surveillance did not violate the Fourth Amendment, which prohibits unreasonable searches and requires that warrants describe the place that's being searched.
"The Supreme Court has upheld the use of technology as a substitute for ordinary police surveillance," Callahan wrote.
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