Chad’s Morning Brief: Will Ted Cruz Just Ignore Paul Sadler?, University of Colorado Still Predicts Romney Election Win, & More
Here is your Morning Brief for the morning of October 8, 2012. Give us your feedback below and tune in to The Chad Hasty Show for these and many more topics from 8:30 to 11 am.
1. Ignoring Sadler (link)
Is Ted Cruz just ignoring his opponent Paul Sadler? It’s possible and it’s working.
U.S. Senate candidate and tea party firebrand Ted Cruz is fond of saying there’s only two ways to campaign: scared or unopposed — and that he is not running unopposed. Lately, though, he’s sure acting like he’s the only one in the race.
The former Texas solicitor general is thought to have a commanding lead against ex-Democratic state Rep. Paul Sadler. Cruz has largely ignored his opponent to concentrate on fundraising and mending fences with a Texas GOP establishment he spent months attacking during the fiercely contested Republican senatorial primary.
“It’s almost like the actual election is an afterthought,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston. “But to the extent to which it’s not, Cruz doesn’t want to do anything to raise Sadler’s profile.”
The second debate may be Sadler’s last chance. He admits he’s having trouble raising money — his campaign reported having only about $31,000 cash-on-hand in July — and advertising in the state’s 20 media markets is extremely expensive. He also says he has not received any financial support from the national Democratic Party.
The Democrat Senate Campaign Committee did not return messages seeking comment, but Bill Brannon, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, said state officials understand that national operatives have to spend on tighter races.
“Are we, as Texans, disappointed? Yes we are. We feel that Paul is a highly competitive, very deserving candidate,” Brannon said. “He’s well qualified and, if he were on a level playing field from a resource standpoint, there would have been an excellent chance to win.”
Without enough money, though, even Brannon conceded, it’s “going to be difficult under the circumstances.”
I don’t blame Cruz for his strategy really. If you watched the last U.S. Senate debate between Sadler and Cruz, then you saw Sadler call Cruz a troll, an extremist, and more. Sadler is desperate and there is no reason to raise his profile.
2. Univ. of Colorado Predicts Romney Win (link)
The University of Colorado is still predicting that Mitt Romney will win the presidential election. That could be a good thing for Republicans because the model has correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election since 1980
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.
According to their model, the only state that changed was New Mexico which now leans Romney.
3. Right to Resell Your Stuff (link)
Thinking about holding a garage sale anytime soon? Do you like selling your old DVD’s and other electronic devices? A Supreme Court case may be very important to you.
At issue in Kirtsaeng v. John Wiley & Sons is the first-sale doctrine in copyright law, which allows you to buy and then sell things like electronics, books, artwork and furniture, as well as CDs and DVDs, without getting permission from the copyright holder of those products.
Put simply, though Apple Inc. has the copyright on the iPhone and Mark Owen has it on the book “No Easy Day,” you can still sell your copies to whomever you please whenever you want without retribution.
That’s being challenged now for products that are made abroad, and if the Supreme Court upholds an appellate court ruling, it would mean that the copyright holders of anything you own that has been made in China, Japan or Europe, for example, would have to give you permission to sell it.
“It means that it’s harder for consumers to buy used products and harder for them to sell them,” said Jonathan Band, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University Law Center, who filed a friend-of-the-court brief on behalf of the American Library Association, the Association of College and Research Libraries and the Association for Research Libraries. “This has huge consumer impact on all consumer groups.”
Another likely result is that it would hit you financially because the copyright holder would now want a piece of that sale.
Keep an eye on this one. Though I can’t see how enforceable this will be.
4. Web Profiles Haunt Students (link)
Can social media hurt your chances of getting into college? It’s possible, but only if you are posting things that you really should. According to the Wall Street Journal, more and more college’s are taking a peek at a perspective student’s online life and more and more are finding material that isn’t so great.
About a quarter of admissions officers at the nation’s top 500 colleges have used websites such as Facebook and Google to vet applicants, according to an annual Kaplan Test Prep survey. Of those, more than one-third say they have found something that has hurt a student’s chance of admission, up from 12% last year.
“We have seen students that have been involved in bullying behavior or alcohol or drugs,” said Martha Blevins Allman, dean of admissions at Wake Forest University. “We never use it as a single indicator and we don’t search blindly, but if we have other suspicions, we will look.”
Vetting by using social-media sites including Facebook and Twitter still hovers in a gray zone at most college admissions offices. Just 15% of the schools in the survey had an official policy about whether to do so, and more than two-thirds of those schools said they won’t use the technique.
Among schools without a policy, more than a quarter say they have checked out a student’s online persona, up slightly from last year, said Jeff Olson, vice president of data science at Kaplan Test Prep, who conducted the survey this summer. Kaplan has included questions about social media in its annual survey for four years.
“The trend line is there,” Mr. Olson said. “My advice to students is to be smart and think twice about what you post online.”
This type of advice is good for anyone out there. Don’t post stupid pictures of yourself online. Even when you are in college, people are still looking at your web profile. Employers also check Facebook and other sites to find out more about an applicant. Just be smart when it comes to your online world.
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